Fabricantes discutem alternativas para exportação, que caíram 37,9% este ano em consequência da crise na Argentina
Desde que a Argentina entrou em crise, em 2013, as exportações de veículos diminuíram significativamente, afinal, o país é o principal parceiro comercial da indústria brasileira. Por isso a preocupação com os problemas econômicos vividos pelo vizinho, assim como com as relações bilaterais.
O acordo comercial vigente entre os dois países acaba em junho de 2020 e os governos acabaram de assinar um novo acordo que só entra em vigor em 2029, mas estabelece o livre comércio.
Para Luiz Carlos Moraes, presidente da Anfavea, associação que reúne os fabricantes de veículos, a renovação do acordo comercial entre Brasil e Argentina traz um cenário de previsibilidade e segurança jurídica para a indústria automobilística, “ainda que haja uma lacuna de 10 anos”, destacou:
“Durante esse prazo, o incremento contínuo do flex, acordo anterior, poderá acomodar eventuais flutuações desses dois mercados, até que o livre comércio coloque nosso bloco em linha com outros acordos bilaterais”, esclareceu o dirigente.
Recentemente, o que consolou a indústria automotiva brasileira em relação às exportações foi a aprovação do acordo comercial entre a União Europeia e o Mercosul, que prevê, em 15 anos, o livre comércio entre os dois blocos, ou seja, não serão mais cobrados impostos sobre os produtos que entram e saem dos países dos blocos. O acordo ainda vai ser assinado pelos países envolvidos e não há data para entrar em vigor. Até lá, a taxa de importação, que é de 35% vai pela metade (17,5%) com cota de 32 mil carros. Esta condição vai prevalecer nos primeiros sete anos e daí em diante a taxa vai cair gradualmente todo ano até zerar.
Outra condição que anima a indústria é a promessa do presidente Bolsonaro de reduzir, em dezembro, a Tarifa Externa Comum (TEC) brasileira, que hoje, para os países da América do Sul, varia entre 13% e 14% e é aplicada em importações de países que não têm acordo de livre comércio com o Brasil ou com o Mercosul. A redução deve acontecer gradualmente nos próximos quatro anos até chegar aos 6% ou 7%. No caso da Europa, a TEC para veículos é de 35%.
Como a TEC afeta o acordo com a UE?
A Anfavea, associação que reúne os fabricantes de veículos, fez uma simulação de como o acordo com a UE vai se comportar ao longo dos 15 anos e como a redução da TEC vai afetar o Brasil no acordo.
A associação considerou que o acordo UE-Mercosul vai entrar em vigor em 2022. Nas condições iniciais, sem a redução da TEC, o acordo prevê redução de 50%, então a taxa de importação cairia para 17,5% com a cota de 32 mil veículos. Do oitavo ano em diante a redução é gradativa e anual até completar os 15 anos e entrar no livre comércio.
Com a redução, os fabricantes acreditam que até 2023 a TEC vai cair de 35% para 20%, somada à redução pela metade do acordo UE-Mercosul a TEC vai para 10% com a cota de 32 mil carros nos primeiros sete anos.
Com essas condições, o País deve dar um passo largo em direção à tecnologia e à eletrificação dos veículos, ainda mais com as condições de investimento do Programa Rota 2030.
EFTA
No final de agosto, o Mercosul finalizou as negociações de um acordo comercial com o EFTA, bloco composto pela Islândia, Noruega, Suíça e Liechtestein. Certamente o Brasil não vai exportar muitos carros desses países, mas, segundo os dirigentes do setor, o acordo é importante para estabelecer bom relacionamento comercial com aqueles países.
Outros acordos comerciais, como o do Brasil com a Colômbia, México e Chile estabelecem condições de livre comércio e, além deles, estão em negociação acordos com os EUA, Japão, Coreia, Singapura, Canadá e Paraguai.
A exportação de veículos é um bom negócio pára as montadoras instaladas no Brasil e o mercado latino-americano tem grande potencial, daí a preocupação do setor com a crise argentina e o desempenho no sentido de abrir novos mercados e ampliar outros, como os da Colômbia e do Peru, que estão mostrando forte crescimento nos últimos anos.
Kalyne Rannieri, da Autoinforme
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