– Venda é 33% menor do que na primeira quinzena de dezembro
– Média diária é menor do que a registrada no ano passado: 6.456
As previsões que a indústria e os distribuidores de veículos fazem para 2017 são positivas. A Anfavea indica um aumento de vendas de carros e comerciais leves de 4% e a Fenabrave +2,4%.
O estudo feito por essas entidades é um indicador para o setor, que com base nele se organiza em produção e estratégia de vendas para o novo período. Mas a avaliação é feita com base nas atuais situações política e econômica do País, o que pode mudar do dia para a noite. Uma mudança na taxa de juros, uma troca de ministro, um golpe parlamentar, tudo pode levar alterações nas previsões. Por isso não é confiável apostar nos números divulgados. Tanto que o setor tem errado redondamente nas suas previsões.
No ano passado, a Fenabrave apostou em queda de 5,7% e a Anfavea em -7,3%. O mercado caiu 19,8%!
Neste ano, parece, não será diferente. As vendas na primeira quinzena de janeiro indicam que 2017 será ainda pior que 2016, se o ritmo persistir. Foram vendidos 71.021 carros e comerciais leves entre os dias 1 e 16 deste mês, o que dá uma média diária sofrível, de 6.456 unidades: para você ter uma idéia do que isso representam saiba que em nenhum mês de 2016 as vendas ficaram abaixo de sete mil unidades por dia. E com o feriado paulistano de 25 de janeiro, a segunda quinzena deverá ter um volume de licenciamento ainda menor.
O volume licenciado na primeira quinzena é 6,6% menor do que no mesmo período do ao ano passado e 33% menor do que a primeira quinzena de dezembro.
O ranking por montadora permanece inalterado nas primeiras posições, com liderança da GM, seguida por Fiat e Volkswagen. Mas a GM está bem à frente: tem quase 20%, contra 14,2% da Fiat e 13,5% da Volkswagen. Mas o quatro lugar mudou de dono: a Toyota subiu (10,5%) e a Hyundai caiu para o quinto, ficou com 8,3%.
O Toyota Etios entra pela primeira vez na lista dos mais vendidos na quinzena (veja ranking por modelo)
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